2010 Red River Rivalry Breakdown

Coming into the 2010 college football season there were alot of unknowns, this due mainly to the fact that so many stars had either graduated or left early for the draft.  This was certainly the case with OU and Texas, OU having to overcome the losses of Heisman winning QB Sam Bradford and All American TE Jermaine Gresham, both to injury and then to the NFL as 1st round draft picks as well as Trent Williams and Gerald Mccoy, both of whom were also drafted in the 1st round.  Texas lost their all-time winning QB in Colt Mccoy, one of the greatest WR's in UT history in Jordan Shipley, as well as some other very important talent including their safety Earl Thomas who was a 1st round pick himself.  Because of this we knew that both teams would be young and fairly untested and as we approach game week it is clear that both teams are facing much bigger dilemmas.

With Oklahoma you have a young team led by a talented but still fairly raw QB in Landry Jones who is now 11-3 as a starter who was thrust into action last year as a redshirt freshman when Bradford went down to injury and has progressively gotten better.  You also have a talented star RB who has lost some explosiveness but can still be effective.  A talented but sometimes unfocused WR group outside of Ryan Broyles has shown signs of greatness mixed with maddening inconsistency, and then you have a defense which is loaded with young talent but often seems to have defensive lapses.  Thus far through 4 games OU has won 3 close games and beaten 2 pretty decent teams but has shown some areas of concern, this game against Texas will go along way toward showing us if OU is a legitimate top 10 team or if we are merely a good team with loads of talent but nowhere near the resolve to win championships.

Through 3 games Texas had exhibited many of the same issues that currently concern OU coaches and fans about their own team as well as spurts of good play, their main hope of having a great season was due to their rock solid defense and its ability to allow the offense to gel.  All of that went down the drain though in their 4th game as Texas was completely pantsed at home against a team that had shown themselves to be nothing better than average all season.  UT had their top flight run defense completely gashed as they gave up over 200 yards rushing and 34 points despite giving up less than 100 yards passing.  UT's young QB Gilbert has only made 4 starts and it showed on Saturday as he contributed 3 of Texas's 5 turnovers.  Gilbert's progression has been stalled by a largely inconsistent group of WR's as well as a complete lack of identity by Texas in the running game.


Going into this weekends match-up we will find out if OU can turn their experience against a good non-conference schedule and their ability to win several close games into the momentum needed to beat a talented yet struggling Texas team.  On the other side, can Texas finally establish a running game that will allow their defense to control the game and take some pressure off of their young QB.  A win by OU vaults them into the front of the Big 12 championship picture and gives them hope of bigger things, a win by UT erases the embarrassment of last weekend and puts them in the front of the line to win the Big 12 South.

Breakdown:  Offense

At the Quarterback position you have Landry Jones who has 14 starts under his belt as I previously mentioned as well as significant playing time in the other games in which he didnt start last season, that includes the game against Texas when he threw a late interception as OU was driving to attempt to tie or take the lead against the Longhorns.  Gilbert has big game experience of his own as he filled in for Colt Mccoy when he went down with a injury in the National Title game.  In that game Gilbert showed flashes of brilliance mixed with a whole lot of panic and bad decision making.

The key stat here is starts and turnovers, 14-4 in favor of Landry Jones as far as starts go.  Gilbert has the unwanted edge in turnovers with 6 so far compared to 3 for Jones and that gives the edge to Landry.

Im going to analyze the running game as a whole instead of comparing running backs simply due to the fact that neither team has really shown the ability to hit the home run through the running game.  Through 4 games OU is averaging 3.0 yards per carry and Texas is averaging 3.8, neither being impressive in the least.  With that being said, OU is allowing 4.3 yards per carry and Texas only 2.7 even after UCLA ran all over them.  Because of this and the fact that OU hasnt been able to run the ball on Texas at all the past 2 years I am giving a slight edge to Texas. 


As far as the pass catchers go, OU has a bonafide superstar in Ryan Broyles, two young and talented guys in Kenny Stills and Dejuan Miller, and 3 TE's/H-back types that have each separately made their own big plays this season.  UT has a bunch of good WR's but no one that has really stood out yet individually, not that you need a star to have a good passing game but Broyles is such a star that I think the attention he draws will open up the passing game for OU's other guys.  Having said that, UT has a very good and very talented secondary.  Ultimately, can Broyles supporting cast make the plays needed to support him or can UT exploit the middle of the field like they have on OU in the past?  I have OU with a slight edge here.


When it comes to the all important offensive line, in 171 pass attempts OU has given up 8 sacks, several of those due to Jones not getting rid of the ball.  UT has 140 pass attempts and has given up 5 sacks.  As we mentioned earlier, neither team has really ran the ball that well and I think that will likely continue.  While both teams have a load of talent here they are largely inconsistent at times and I think that neither has a significant edge at this position.


Breakdown: Defense



OU has 11 sacks but did play 1 game against an option offense and two games against teams with extremely mobile QB's, UT has 14 sacks and has played one really big time passing team in Texas Tech.  The difference here in my opinion is the teams ability to stop the rush and UT had been vastly superior here until the last game.  OU has had trouble getting push from the middle at times and that worries me.  As I mentioned earlier as well, UT has also found it possible to exploit the middle of the field against OU.

UT has a very talented and proven secondary on their side and it will be interesting to see their strength against ours with our passing game.  Ultimately I think that OU is going to try and make UT run the ball and UT is going to do the same.  Whose defense will step up and get the job done against the rush?  I give a overall edge to UT on defense but it is closer than it was after this past week, especially when you figure in that OU has had more of a knack of pulling off the big plays on defense than UT has.


Breakdown: Special Teams

OU has one of the best punters in the nation and are 6/8 on Field Goals, UT is average in the punt game as far as distance goes but have been pretty good overall at landing punts inside the 20, their FG kicker is 7/9.  As far as the return game goes, OU has one of the best punt returners in the nation with Broyles and a very solid kick return team.  UT is steady but not spectacular at returning punts with Curtis Brown but has an explosive kick returner in DJ Monroe.  Overall i'd likely call this a push but if you are looking for an edge, in the 2 punts that UT has allowed to be returned they have given up 45 and 16 yards while OU's kick coverage teams have been dynamite.


Final Prediction

Ultimately this game will be decided in a few areas, first and foremost can OU continue to build momentum and get better and can UT recover from an embarrassing loss at home.  Secondly, can either team establish the run or will both abandon this aspect of their games for the pass?  In my opinion UT's best chance is to force some turnovers and break a few long runs, if they cant run the ball I see OU methodically dismantling UT.

At the end of the day I see this game starting off slow offensively, I think OU will exploit Gilbert's inexperience and in the end I see OU pulling away from a close game in the 3rd quarter and holding on in the 4th quarter for a 31-23 victory.