Tuesday, September 28, 2010

My plan to fix the Cardinals

I'm going to play GM for a moment, as most fans enjoy doing from time to time.  We are closing in on the end of a very disappointing season for us Cardinal fans, a season that was supposed to end in the playoffs and perhaps having a shot at another World Series title is about to finish up with the Cardinals firmly in 2nd place.  What makes this even more disappointing is the really good core of players that we have, unfortunately the surrounding parts just werent good enough.

Lets start with that core, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Adam Wainwright, Jamie Garcia, Yadier Molina, Colby Rasmus, Kyle Loshe (not great but signed for another year and has proven that he can be a solid #4 or #5 pitcher), and Ryan Franklin(needs to be a setup guy in my opinion).  First of all i'd like to say that I believe this is a core group of players that can be built around successfully and very fast.  So what to do with the roster from here?

First i'd give Suppan every opportunity to win a spot in the rotation if he will take a smaller contract next year, since coming back to the Cardinals in June his record has only been 2-5 but his era is a very respectable 4.12, especially for a end of the rotation pitcher, he will need to accept less money though as I said earlier.  A rotation of Garcia (if he can build on his spectacular rookie season, Carpenter and Waino (as good of a 1-2 combo in the game), mixed with Loshe and Suppan is good enough to win I believe.

Next I would decide to keep Brendan Ryan as my starting shortstop, he is a premium defensive shortstop in the game and I firmly believe that his hitting struggles this season are not indicative of his actual ability.  He will never hit for power or drive in a ton of runs but I think he can be a solid 8 or 9 hitter, depending on where LaRussa hits the pitcher.  I would move Skip Schumaker back to his previous role as a platoon outfielder/infielder and I would attempt to sign a new second baseman, I would take a long hard look at Descalso first though.  He is only 23, has proven in his short time with the big league club that he can hit and appears to be a better defensive option than Schumaker.  I would attempt to Aaron Miles as a bench guy and I would give Tyler Greene every opportunity to make the team as a utility type guy, hopefully he can finally translate his Minor League success into Major League success.

I would stand firm with the backup Catcher position, I think Pagnozzi or Anderson are both decent and cheap options, Pagnozzi the better defensive catcher which LaRussa and Duncan have shown a preference to in the past.

With the Outfield I would move Holliday to Right Field as he has said he wouldn't mind and I would attempt to sign a veteran Left Fielder who either has some power or can be a lead-off guy, Carl Crawford is my dream but im certain that is a pipe dream at best.  I think Jon Jay is an excellent option as far as platooning with Schumaker in a backup/pinch hitting role but I am not sure if he is ready to handle the everyday load yet.  I would also give Allen Craig another look, the guy can rake at the plate and I am hopeful that his recent streak toward the end of the season is more indicative of his potential at the Big League level than what he has shown most of the season.

The bullpen is a must fix, outside of Franklin, McClellan, and Motte.  I also wouldn't mind seeing Boggs and Salas brought back if they continue to improve.  We need another lefty specialist, we need to keep one of either Reyes or Miller but not both in my opinion.  I do think we need a new closer, whether that is McClellan, Motte, or someone new, it needs to happen.

Now, having said all that, I don't claim to be any kind of payroll genius and I realize the Cardinals have some limitations, especially with trying to resign Pujols.  My overall point is that this is a roster that can be worked with.

I am quite excited about what the off-season brings, I do think that this is an off-season that will form my opinion of our GM and depending on the moves made will tell me if I am to be excited about the next 5-6 years or if we are about to move into a rebuilding phase for a few years. 

It's that time again...Week 5 Predictions

So last week I came through with a solid week going 8-4 and hopefully I can keep the momentum going with a huge week of football ahead of us.  We've got the always huge Red River Rivalry which i've already picked my Sooners to win 31-23, we also have Bama vs. Florida among others.  My Chiefs are off this week so I will be adding in an additional NFL game as a substitute, Here we go...




 College Football

Oklahoma vs. Texas
Florida vs. Alabama
Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma St.
Wisconsin vs. Michigan St.
Va Tech vs. North Carolina St.
Arizona St. vs. Oregon St.
Stanford vs. Oregon


 NFL

Denver vs. Tennessee
Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh
New England vs. Miami
Chicago vs. NY Giants
Carolina vs. New Orleans




Last Week- 8-4
Season- 34-14

Sunday, September 26, 2010

2010 Red River Rivalry Breakdown

Coming into the 2010 college football season there were alot of unknowns, this due mainly to the fact that so many stars had either graduated or left early for the draft.  This was certainly the case with OU and Texas, OU having to overcome the losses of Heisman winning QB Sam Bradford and All American TE Jermaine Gresham, both to injury and then to the NFL as 1st round draft picks as well as Trent Williams and Gerald Mccoy, both of whom were also drafted in the 1st round.  Texas lost their all-time winning QB in Colt Mccoy, one of the greatest WR's in UT history in Jordan Shipley, as well as some other very important talent including their safety Earl Thomas who was a 1st round pick himself.  Because of this we knew that both teams would be young and fairly untested and as we approach game week it is clear that both teams are facing much bigger dilemmas.

With Oklahoma you have a young team led by a talented but still fairly raw QB in Landry Jones who is now 11-3 as a starter who was thrust into action last year as a redshirt freshman when Bradford went down to injury and has progressively gotten better.  You also have a talented star RB who has lost some explosiveness but can still be effective.  A talented but sometimes unfocused WR group outside of Ryan Broyles has shown signs of greatness mixed with maddening inconsistency, and then you have a defense which is loaded with young talent but often seems to have defensive lapses.  Thus far through 4 games OU has won 3 close games and beaten 2 pretty decent teams but has shown some areas of concern, this game against Texas will go along way toward showing us if OU is a legitimate top 10 team or if we are merely a good team with loads of talent but nowhere near the resolve to win championships.

Through 3 games Texas had exhibited many of the same issues that currently concern OU coaches and fans about their own team as well as spurts of good play, their main hope of having a great season was due to their rock solid defense and its ability to allow the offense to gel.  All of that went down the drain though in their 4th game as Texas was completely pantsed at home against a team that had shown themselves to be nothing better than average all season.  UT had their top flight run defense completely gashed as they gave up over 200 yards rushing and 34 points despite giving up less than 100 yards passing.  UT's young QB Gilbert has only made 4 starts and it showed on Saturday as he contributed 3 of Texas's 5 turnovers.  Gilbert's progression has been stalled by a largely inconsistent group of WR's as well as a complete lack of identity by Texas in the running game.


Going into this weekends match-up we will find out if OU can turn their experience against a good non-conference schedule and their ability to win several close games into the momentum needed to beat a talented yet struggling Texas team.  On the other side, can Texas finally establish a running game that will allow their defense to control the game and take some pressure off of their young QB.  A win by OU vaults them into the front of the Big 12 championship picture and gives them hope of bigger things, a win by UT erases the embarrassment of last weekend and puts them in the front of the line to win the Big 12 South.

Breakdown:  Offense

At the Quarterback position you have Landry Jones who has 14 starts under his belt as I previously mentioned as well as significant playing time in the other games in which he didnt start last season, that includes the game against Texas when he threw a late interception as OU was driving to attempt to tie or take the lead against the Longhorns.  Gilbert has big game experience of his own as he filled in for Colt Mccoy when he went down with a injury in the National Title game.  In that game Gilbert showed flashes of brilliance mixed with a whole lot of panic and bad decision making.

The key stat here is starts and turnovers, 14-4 in favor of Landry Jones as far as starts go.  Gilbert has the unwanted edge in turnovers with 6 so far compared to 3 for Jones and that gives the edge to Landry.

Im going to analyze the running game as a whole instead of comparing running backs simply due to the fact that neither team has really shown the ability to hit the home run through the running game.  Through 4 games OU is averaging 3.0 yards per carry and Texas is averaging 3.8, neither being impressive in the least.  With that being said, OU is allowing 4.3 yards per carry and Texas only 2.7 even after UCLA ran all over them.  Because of this and the fact that OU hasnt been able to run the ball on Texas at all the past 2 years I am giving a slight edge to Texas. 


As far as the pass catchers go, OU has a bonafide superstar in Ryan Broyles, two young and talented guys in Kenny Stills and Dejuan Miller, and 3 TE's/H-back types that have each separately made their own big plays this season.  UT has a bunch of good WR's but no one that has really stood out yet individually, not that you need a star to have a good passing game but Broyles is such a star that I think the attention he draws will open up the passing game for OU's other guys.  Having said that, UT has a very good and very talented secondary.  Ultimately, can Broyles supporting cast make the plays needed to support him or can UT exploit the middle of the field like they have on OU in the past?  I have OU with a slight edge here.


When it comes to the all important offensive line, in 171 pass attempts OU has given up 8 sacks, several of those due to Jones not getting rid of the ball.  UT has 140 pass attempts and has given up 5 sacks.  As we mentioned earlier, neither team has really ran the ball that well and I think that will likely continue.  While both teams have a load of talent here they are largely inconsistent at times and I think that neither has a significant edge at this position.


Breakdown: Defense



OU has 11 sacks but did play 1 game against an option offense and two games against teams with extremely mobile QB's, UT has 14 sacks and has played one really big time passing team in Texas Tech.  The difference here in my opinion is the teams ability to stop the rush and UT had been vastly superior here until the last game.  OU has had trouble getting push from the middle at times and that worries me.  As I mentioned earlier as well, UT has also found it possible to exploit the middle of the field against OU.

UT has a very talented and proven secondary on their side and it will be interesting to see their strength against ours with our passing game.  Ultimately I think that OU is going to try and make UT run the ball and UT is going to do the same.  Whose defense will step up and get the job done against the rush?  I give a overall edge to UT on defense but it is closer than it was after this past week, especially when you figure in that OU has had more of a knack of pulling off the big plays on defense than UT has.


Breakdown: Special Teams

OU has one of the best punters in the nation and are 6/8 on Field Goals, UT is average in the punt game as far as distance goes but have been pretty good overall at landing punts inside the 20, their FG kicker is 7/9.  As far as the return game goes, OU has one of the best punt returners in the nation with Broyles and a very solid kick return team.  UT is steady but not spectacular at returning punts with Curtis Brown but has an explosive kick returner in DJ Monroe.  Overall i'd likely call this a push but if you are looking for an edge, in the 2 punts that UT has allowed to be returned they have given up 45 and 16 yards while OU's kick coverage teams have been dynamite.


Final Prediction

Ultimately this game will be decided in a few areas, first and foremost can OU continue to build momentum and get better and can UT recover from an embarrassing loss at home.  Secondly, can either team establish the run or will both abandon this aspect of their games for the pass?  In my opinion UT's best chance is to force some turnovers and break a few long runs, if they cant run the ball I see OU methodically dismantling UT.

At the end of the day I see this game starting off slow offensively, I think OU will exploit Gilbert's inexperience and in the end I see OU pulling away from a close game in the 3rd quarter and holding on in the 4th quarter for a 31-23 victory.

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Predictions- Week 4

Now we are really starting to get into both the college and nfl seasons and are able to see what the teams are really about, I had a bit of an off week during week 1 but nailed it the last two weeks, going 9-3 this past week, even calling the upset of Iowa.  Lets see what we can do with the new week...


College

OU vs. Cincinnati
Va Tech vs. Boston College
Bama vs. Arkansas
North Carolina vs. Rutgers
Georgia vs. Mississippi St
South Carolina vs. Auburn
West Virginia vs. LSU


 NFL

San Francisco vs. Kansas City
Dallas vs. Houston
Indianapolis vs. Denver
NY Jets vs. Miami
Green Bay vs. Chicago




Last Week- 9-3
Season- 26-10

Friday, September 17, 2010

Somewhere along the way weve forgotten how good of a job Mike Stoops has done!

With an outside view you might see Mike Stoops record of 35-39 as the Head Coach of The University of Arizona and find yourself unimpressed, quite honestly you might wonder how he still has a job in this his 7th season as Head Coach.  In reality, the truth lies in the past.

  Arizona isnt a football power in the college game but they do have a little history including twice finishing in the Top 10 under Dick Tomey, he also lead Arizona to 7 of the programs 13 all time bowl appearances.  Unfortunately, his final two seasons left Arizona with just 11 total wins and the desire to move in another direction after 14 seasons.  Arizona was looking for a coach with a track record of turning around programs and they saw John Mackovic as the perfect fit seeing as how he had previously revitalized Wake Forest, Illinois, and Texas before moving on.

What seemed like the perfect fit ended up being the perfect nightmare for The University of Arizona, not only did Mackovic coach the Wildcats to 3 straight losing seasons but he also endured a complete player revolt of sorts, alienating his roster with constant personal attacks which eventually lead to 40 Wildcat players having a private meeting with the University President.  Once it was clear that the team was fed up and had quit on Mackovic the President decided to relieve him of his duties.

With the program in complete disarray, not having a winning season in 5+ seasons and with a roster full of guys who weren't sure if they wanted to play for Arizona anymore, the Wildcats hired brash young Defensive Coordinator Mike Stoops from the University of Oklahoma.  While the mountain appeared steep, Stoops was quite confident that with his disciplined style of coaching he could turn the program around.

Three seasons in, Stoops had only 12 combined wins and no more than 6 in any season with no bowl appearances, it was clear though that the attitude had changed as the Wildcats posted several upset victories over highly ranked teams in those 1st three years.  Going into Stoops 4th season, Arizona had not gone to a bowl game in almost a decade and the fans were getting restless despite the obvious improvement.  The season ended with a 5-7 record and despite going 3-1 down the stretch with an upset over #2 Oregon in Tuscon, the team was left bowl-less again and many though Stoops would be fired.  Stoops was only 17-29 as the Arizona Head Coach and despite several big wins against ranked teams, many thought that Stoops may have been the right guy to return the program to respectability but not to win big?  With his future in question the University President and Athletic Director came out and publicly backed Stoops and the job he was doing, showing confidence that he was the right guy for the job.

Despite the support many knew that Stoops needed to win in his 5th season or he probably wouldnt be around any longer, and win he did.  The Wildcats finished the season at 8-5 despite 4 losses by a Touchdown or less.  The Wildcats were relevant again, winning, and competing even in their losses.  Stoops and his team capped off the season with the programs 1st bowl win in a decade by beating a ranked BYU football team.

Going into the 2009 season Mike Stoops was rewarded with an extension thru 2013 and it was clear that he firmly had the administrations backing.  The Wildcats would go 8-5 again in 2009 with their 2nd straight bowl appearance, Stoops 1st win against USC, and were a 3 pt loss to #11 Oregon from sharing the Pac-10 title and going to the programs 1st ever Rose Bowl.

Now we sit here on September 17th, 2010 and Mike Stoops has his team 2-0 and ranked #18 in the nation while heading into a huge home game vs. #10 ranked Iowa in what could be a career defining game.  We've seen Coach Stoops teams progress from bad to competitive to fairly good but maybe not quite good enough, is this the year that Arizona football firmly makes their case as a Top Tier Program and people start realizing that Mike Stoops is not only one hell of a coach, but that he may well be one of the top coaches in the nation, leading one of the top programs in the nation? 

Many will say that no matter how the game turns out, Stoops has done a great job and to that, I would agree.  I'm thinking that around 1am CST tomorrow we may see Arizona's first Top 10 team since Dick Tomey did it back in 1998, and with that The Arizona fans can finally say, "We are a Football School!"

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Week 3 Predictions

Week 2 got me back on track as I went 10-2.  I made a couple of 'against the grain' type picks and got a few big wins because of it.  The Chiefs upset defending AFC West Champ San Diego, Washington upset Dallas, Houston upset Indy, and Michigan won at Notre Dame.  Lets keep it rolling in week 3, here ya go...

NFL

Kansas City vs Cleveland
Pittsburgh vs Tennessee
Houston vs Washington
New England vs New York Jets
New York Giants vs Indianapolis

College

Oklahoma vs Air Force
Cincinnati vs NC State
Arkansas vs Georgia
Nebraska vs Washington
Mississippi State vs LSU
Iowa vs Arizona
Texas vs Texas Tech





Last Week- 10-2
Season- 17-7

Sunday, September 12, 2010

All is right in the world as USA's basketball team is back to dominating!

The world of international basketball has been one of major disappointment for Team USA every since the "Dream Team" left us.  No World Championship since 94 including an embarrassing 6th place finish in 2002 as well as a 3rd place finish at the 2004 Olympics and many had began to doubt the Americans commitment to international basketball.

Enter Jerry Colangelo, Coach K and a new attitude and it appears that the old ways of international basketball are back.  Team USA still has more close games than what we are used to but it is pretty clear that despite the fact that other countries are getting better and better at basketball, they still cant match what we have to offer when everyone has the same focus.  Coach K has done a marvelous job of bringing a bunch of rich basketball players together and convincing them to give up their self for the better of the team.

We seemed to have gotten to a point late in the 90s where we simply thought we could 'out athlete' anyone we played and forgot that we actually had to have basketball skills as well as a cohesive team.  Now here we are in 2010 with what most NBA insiders would probably call our Team USA "B" squad and we just dominated the World Championships.  If the NBA players continue to stay committed to the process it seems quite clear that no one will touch us for quite a while and thats exactly how it should be.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Season of disappointment

Anyone who is a baseball fan as I am knows how time consuming it can be, the season literally lasts from April til November.  Throughout a baseball season you will see alot of amazing things along with many things that irritate the death out of you.

Being a Cardinals fan I am somewhat spoiled, we are one of the few teams to contend for the playoffs nearly every season, actually making the playoffs 8 of 14 years with Tony Larussa at the helm.  Of those 14+ seasons we have only had to suffer through a losing season 3 times.

So, as we get close to the end of the regular season of Larussa's 15th year with the Cardinals, I think I find this to be the absolute most frustrating season that I can remember.  Dominating pitching couple with no hitting, getting leads only to have the bullpen blow the lead, prolonged stretches where our two main stars Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday havent been able to drive in a clutch run.  Despite all of this the Cardinals are still only 6 games out of 1st place and with the 1st place Reds losing tonight my frustration was confirmed several times.

First in the 4th inning my Cardinals have 2 on with 1 out and a chance to break the game open and cant get the big hit that seems to have alluded them all season and just now, the Cardinals come to the plate in the 8th inning down 4-2 with the top of their lineup only to have two different guys strikeout looking.  I just dont get it, at the times when the focus level should be at its highest we seem to lose concentration and make a long season even longer.

So even if the Cardinals end up losing this game I have to hold out hope that we still have a chance at the playoffs, although with every wasted opportunity we get closer and closer to the unfortunate end.

Monday, September 6, 2010

Predictions Week 2

OK, so I didnt do so great at 7-5 for week 1 but I did originally pick UNC before they lost half their team to suspension and stuck with the pick and VT had the win with 1 minute left so I nearly had a pretty solid week.  With that said, here goes week 2.

NFL

San Diego vs KC
Green Bay vs Philly
Indy vs Houston
Cincy vs New England
Dallas vs Washington

CFB

OU vs Florida St
Mich vs ND
Georgia vs South Carolina
Miami vs Ohio St
BYU vs Air Force
Penn St. vs Alabama
Colorado vs California




Last Week- 7-5
Season- 7-5